ROI Scorecard · Method 0
64 of 129 promotions lost money.
Method 0 is the most forgiving measure available — each promotion judged against the eight weeks before it. Even so, half these events didn't pay back. The portfolio clears 1.13× only because a thin tail of winners carries a middle that didn't.
- Trade spend
- $104,425
- Net incremental margin
- $118,200
- Portfolio ROI
- 1.13×
what these promotions actually cost, across the 129 measurable events
manufacturer margin on incremental units
margin returned per dollar of spend
Where the 129 estimable promotions landed
Grouped by return on trade spend · Method 0 estimate
2 of 131 events not estimable by Method 0 (insufficient pre-period history), shown unranked below and excluded from these totals. Method 0 is the simplest baseline on this site — better ones follow. Treat it as the floor, not the verdict.
Every promotion, ranked by net margin
129 estimable events. Rows below break-even — margin under spend — are marked in the ROI column. Method 0 estimate.
| # | Promotion | Net margin | Trade spend | ROI | Giveaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PRE-0073 | $13,228 | $12,333 | 1.07× | 50% |
| 2 | PRE-0019 | $9,662 | $4,821 | 2.00× | 36% |
| 3 | PRE-0023 | $7,270 | $3,771 | 1.93× | 43% |
| 4 | PRE-0043 Hero cannibal | $6,000 | $3,274 | 1.83× | 50% |
| 5 | PRE-0105 | $5,992 | $5,965 | 1.00× | 65% |
| 6 | PRE-0002 Pure subsidy | $5,049 | $9,180 | 0.55× | 63% |
| 7 | PRE-0056 Pantry trap | $5,005 | $2,201 | 2.27× | 27% |
| 8 | PRE-0079 | $3,993 | $2,239 | 1.78× | 26% |
| 9 | PRE-0001 | $3,896 | $869 | 4.48× | 54% |
| 10 | PRE-0055 | $3,814 | $4,454 | 0.86× | 50% |
| 11 | PRE-0025 | $3,574 | $889 | 4.02× | 29% |
| 12 | PRE-0128 | $2,737 | $843 | 3.25× | 25% |
| 13 | PRE-0078 | $2,721 | $2,298 | 1.18× | 50% |
| 14 | PRE-0027 | $2,582 | $3,670 | 0.70× | 57% |
| 15 | PRE-0102 | $2,113 | $2,456 | 0.86× | 51% |
| 16 | PRE-0012 | $1,739 | $1,908 | 0.91× | 59% |
| 17 | PRE-0081 | $1,666 | $1,900 | 0.88× | 56% |
| 18 | PRE-0042 | $1,622 | $918 | 1.77× | 64% |
| 19 | PRE-0077 | $1,612 | $158 | 10.22× | 77% |
| 20 | PRE-0026 | $1,574 | $1,226 | 1.28× | 35% |
| 21 | PRE-0022 | $1,570 | $1,320 | 1.19× | 40% |
| 22 | PRE-0003 | $1,529 | $2,017 | 0.76× | 58% |
| 23 | PRE-0067 | $1,517 | $262 | 5.80× | 30% |
| 24 | PRE-0029 | $1,441 | $1,132 | 1.27× | 53% |
| 25 | PRE-0090 | $1,368 | $534 | 2.56× | 35% |
| 26 | PRE-0106 | $1,158 | $868 | 1.33× | 45% |
| 27 | PRE-0083 | $1,131 | $574 | 1.97× | 51% |
| 28 | PRE-0052 | $1,112 | $701 | 1.59× | 49% |
| 29 | PRE-0108 | $1,068 | $732 | 1.46× | 38% |
| 30 | PRE-0075 | $1,040 | $794 | 1.31× | 50% |
| 31 | PRE-0103 | $1,037 | $654 | 1.58× | 78% |
| 32 | PRE-0126 | $1,019 | $1,551 | 0.66× | 59% |
| 33 | PRE-0005 | $793 | $667 | 1.19× | 54% |
| 34 | PRE-0114 | $761 | $271 | 2.81× | 40% |
| 35 | PRE-0057 | $758 | $1,098 | 0.69× | 74% |
| 36 | PRE-0072 | $727 | $430 | 1.69× | 50% |
| 37 | PRE-0021 | $644 | $275 | 2.34× | 61% |
| 38 | PRE-0009 | $620 | $1,042 | 0.59× | 61% |
| 39 | PRE-0107 | $610 | $189 | 3.23× | 62% |
| 40 | PRE-0088 | $593 | $702 | 0.84× | 68% |
| 41 | PRE-0016 | $583 | $208 | 2.80× | 37% |
| 42 | PRE-0115 | $567 | $285 | 1.99× | 47% |
| 43 | PRE-0050 | $555 | $179 | 3.10× | 51% |
| 44 | PRE-0096 | $499 | $747 | 0.67× | 61% |
| 45 | PRE-0013 | $491 | $508 | 0.97× | 35% |
| 46 | PRE-0006 | $478 | $343 | 1.39× | 71% |
| 47 | PRE-0062 | $451 | $867 | 0.52× | 65% |
| 48 | PRE-0068 | $446 | $242 | 1.84× | 70% |
| 49 | PRE-0058 | $420 | $966 | 0.43× | 75% |
| 50 | PRE-0125 unplanned | $391 | $244 | 1.60× | 45% |
| 51 | PRE-0051 | $372 | $274 | 1.36× | 55% |
| 52 | PRE-0130 | $370 | $323 | 1.15× | 72% |
| 53 | PRE-0024 | $369 | $584 | 0.63× | 60% |
| 54 | PRE-0031 | $355 | $129 | 2.75× | 41% |
| 55 | PRE-0028 | $339 | $890 | 0.38× | 49% |
| 56 | PRE-0010 | $333 | $106 | 3.13× | 50% |
| 57 | PRE-0112 | $329 | $269 | 1.22× | 84% |
| 58 | PRE-0020 | $324 | $426 | 0.76× | 52% |
| 59 | PRE-0129 unplanned | $314 | $356 | 0.88× | 48% |
| 60 | PRE-0046 | $308 | $143 | 2.16× | 63% |
| 61 | PRE-0011 | $301 | $273 | 1.10× | 61% |
| 62 | PRE-0070 | $301 | $81 | 3.70× | 50% |
| 63 | PRE-0124 | $298 | $61 | 4.91× | 50% |
| 64 | PRE-0127 | $278 | $414 | 0.67× | 79% |
| 65 | PRE-0095 | $220 | $142 | 1.55× | 56% |
| 66 | PRE-0082 | $212 | $274 | 0.77× | 49% |
| 67 | PRE-0064 | $208 | $365 | 0.57× | 73% |
| 68 | PRE-0014 | $206 | $187 | 1.11× | 53% |
| 69 | PRE-0053 | $200 | $247 | 0.81× | 87% |
| 70 | PRE-0094 | $194 | $100 | 1.93× | 54% |
| 71 | PRE-0060 | $186 | $195 | 0.95× | 73% |
| 72 | PRE-0044 | $178 | $228 | 0.78× | 69% |
| 73 | PRE-0034 | $164 | $174 | 0.94× | 75% |
| 74 | PRE-0035 | $163 | $324 | 0.50× | 63% |
| 75 | PRE-0093 | $162 | $96 | 1.69× | 43% |
| 76 | PRE-0080 | $160 | $1,125 | 0.14× | 89% |
| 77 | PRE-0066 | $152 | $101 | 1.50× | 80% |
| 78 | PRE-0033 | $151 | $105 | 1.44× | 47% |
| 79 | PRE-0104 | $151 | $185 | 0.82× | 65% |
| 80 | PRE-0113 | $150 | $289 | 0.52× | 86% |
| 81 | PRE-0084 | $143 | $116 | 1.23× | 59% |
| 82 | PRE-0030 | $140 | $210 | 0.67× | 71% |
| 83 | PRE-0045 | $140 | $203 | 0.69× | 55% |
| 84 | PRE-0097 | $134 | $330 | 0.41× | 77% |
| 85 | PRE-0110 | $116 | $208 | 0.56× | 66% |
| 86 | PRE-0111 | $98 | $286 | 0.34× | 80% |
| 87 | PRE-0092 | $98 | $47 | 2.06× | 57% |
| 88 | PRE-0089 | $95 | $66 | 1.45× | 45% |
| 89 | PRE-0101 | $92 | $61 | 1.50× | 45% |
| 90 | PRE-0087 Clean winner | $89 | $21 | 4.27× | 91% |
| 91 | PRE-0036 | $83 | $55 | 1.50× | 30% |
| 92 | PRE-0041 | $82 | $183 | 0.45× | 92% |
| 93 | PRE-0074 | $79 | $116 | 0.68× | 56% |
| 94 | PRE-0008 | $77 | $92 | 0.84× | 54% |
| 95 | PRE-0040 phantom | $77 | $4,766 | 0.02× | — |
| 96 | PRE-0086 | $76 | $53 | 1.44× | 61% |
| 97 | PRE-0098 | $73 | $168 | 0.43× | 65% |
| 98 | PRE-0037 | $69 | $165 | 0.42× | 70% |
| 99 | PRE-0100 | $57 | $19 | 3.05× | 63% |
| 100 | PRE-0071 | $57 | $28 | 2.03× | 39% |
| 101 | PRE-0017 | $57 | $58 | 0.97× | 40% |
| 102 | PRE-0047 | $45 | $51 | 0.88× | 71% |
| 103 | PRE-0007 | $41 | $88 | 0.47× | 81% |
| 104 | PRE-0076 | $40 | $475 | 0.08× | 90% |
| 105 | PRE-0032 | $37 | $222 | 0.17× | 87% |
| 106 | PRE-0131 | $29 | $122 | 0.24× | 66% |
| 107 | PRE-0121 | $28 | $15 | 1.91× | 39% |
| 108 | PRE-0120 | $23 | $8 | 2.95× | 63% |
| 109 | PRE-0015 | $20 | $2 | 11.42× | 84% |
| 110 | PRE-0018 | $19 | $35 | 0.54× | 65% |
| 111 | PRE-0118 unplanned | $17 | $1 | 24.78× | 69% |
| 112 | PRE-0099 | $10 | $15 | 0.66× | 90% |
| 113 | PRE-0038 | $10 | $12 | 0.81× | 89% |
| 114 | PRE-0119 | $9 | $9 | 1.03× | 67% |
| 115 | PRE-0085 | $7 | $75 | 0.09× | 87% |
| 116 | PRE-0122 | $3 | $6 | 0.57× | 96% |
| 117 | PRE-0059 | $2 | $0 | — | — |
| 118 | PRE-0061 phantom | -$3 | $276 | -0.01× | — |
| 119 | PRE-0049 phantom | -$3 | $75 | -0.04× | — |
| 120 | PRE-0065 | -$16 | $75 | -0.21× | 106%† |
| 121 | PRE-0123 | -$21 | $34 | -0.61× | 104%† |
| 122 | PRE-0039 phantom | -$24 | $24 | -1.03× | — |
| 123 | PRE-0063 phantom | -$25 | $137 | -0.18× | — |
| 124 | PRE-0117 | -$29 | $66 | -0.43× | 106%† |
| 125 | PRE-0116 phantom ‡ | -$69 | $0 | — | — |
| 126 | PRE-0069 | -$137 | $109 | -1.26× | 139%† |
| 127 | PRE-0091 | -$273 | $514 | -0.53× | 115%† |
| 128 | PRE-0004 phantom ‡ | -$445 | $0 | — | — |
| 129 | PRE-0109 | -$1,702 | $490 | -3.47× | 267%† |
- † Giveaway over 100%: sales during the promotion fell below the pre-period baseline — a dip — so the baseline volume outweighs what actually sold. Method 0 reads a dip and a weak promotion the same way.
- ‡ Scan-funded phantom — the promotion never ran, so nothing accrued; the margin shown is estimation noise around zero.
Not estimable by Method 0
2 events with too little pre-period history for a naive baseline. Excluded from the totals above and shown here — the denominator is never hidden. A comparable-store baseline can estimate events like these; Method 0 can't.
- PRE-0048
- PRE-0054