Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0004

KROGER · CHP-AS-002 · endcap · 14% off · 2 weeks · 2023-12-16 to 2023-12-23 · scan_based phantom

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

1,520Gross promoted1,460− Subsidized baseline60= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$122
Accrued trade cost
$0
Return on spend
Giveaway share
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →