Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

← Back to the Scorecard

PRE-0023

WALMART · CHP-AS-010 · BOGO · 14.95% off · 3 weeks · 2023-08-26 to 2023-09-09 · scan_based

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

6,112Gross promoted2,800− Subsidized baseline3,312= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$7,270
Accrued trade cost
$3,771
Return on spend
1.93×
Giveaway share
43%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →