Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0039

WALMART · CHP-DG-006 · ad_circular · 12.7% off · 1 week · 2025-01-04 to 2025-01-04 · off_invoice phantom

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

6Gross promoted5− Subsidized baseline1= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$3
Accrued trade cost
$24
Return on spend
0.10×
Giveaway share
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →