Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · endcap · 15% off · 2 weeks · 2025-06-14 to 2025-06-21 · billback hero cannibal

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

6,071Gross promoted3,230− Subsidized baseline2,842= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$6,238
Accrued trade cost
$3,274
Return on spend
1.90×
Giveaway share
50%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →