Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0049

REGIONAL · CHP-DG-010 · endcap · 15.7% off · 1 week · 2025-03-08 to 2025-03-08 · MCB phantom

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

55Gross promoted62− Subsidized baseline-7= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
-$18
Accrued trade cost
$75
Return on spend
-0.20×
Giveaway share
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →