Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0053

WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-001 · TPR_shallow · 8% off · 2 weeks · 2024-06-08 to 2024-06-15 · billback

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

797Gross promoted746− Subsidized baseline51= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$112
Accrued trade cost
$247
Return on spend
0.50×
Giveaway share
90%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →