Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0056

WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · BOGO · 30% off · 1 week · 2024-05-11 to 2024-05-11 · billback pantry trap

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

3,191Gross promoted884− Subsidized baseline2,307= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$5,064
Accrued trade cost
$2,201
Return on spend
2.30×
Giveaway share
30%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →