Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0060

WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-003 · TPR_shallow · 13.4% off · 2 weeks · 2025-07-26 to 2025-08-02 · off_invoice

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

353Gross promoted249− Subsidized baseline105= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$247
Accrued trade cost
$195
Return on spend
1.30×
Giveaway share
70%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →