Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0063

COSTCO · CHP-PS-005 · ad_circular · 8.1% off · 3 weeks · 2024-02-17 to 2024-03-02 · off_invoice phantom

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

255Gross promoted184− Subsidized baseline72= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$107
Accrued trade cost
$137
Return on spend
0.80×
Giveaway share
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →