Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0063

COSTCO · CHP-PS-005 · ad_circular · 8.05% off · 3 weeks · 2024-02-17 to 2024-03-02 · off_invoice phantom

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

462Gross promoted479− Subsidized baseline-17= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
-$25
Accrued trade cost
$137
Return on spend
-0.18×
Giveaway share

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →