Event Anatomy
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Where the promoted volume came from
Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.
Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.
- Net incremental margin
- $125
- Accrued trade cost
- $101
- Return on spend
- 1.20×
- Giveaway share
- 80%