Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0085

REGIONAL · CHP-SB-004 · TPR_shallow · 19% off · 2 weeks · 2023-12-30 to 2024-01-06 · off_invoice

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

118Gross promoted90− Subsidized baseline28= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$46
Accrued trade cost
$75
Return on spend
0.60×
Giveaway share
60%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →