Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0090

COSTCO · CHP-SB-006 · BOGO · 17.9% off · 2 weeks · 2024-07-13 to 2024-07-20 · off_invoice

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

343Gross promoted140− Subsidized baseline203= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$384
Accrued trade cost
$534
Return on spend
0.70×
Giveaway share
30%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →