Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

← Back to the Scorecard

PRE-0100

COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · endcap · 6.909999999999999% off · 3 weeks · 2025-06-21 to 2025-07-05 · scan_based

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

126Gross promoted93− Subsidized baseline33= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$57
Accrued trade cost
$19
Return on spend
3.05×
Giveaway share
63%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →