Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0111

KROGER · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow · 22.9% off · 1 week · 2025-08-02 to 2025-08-02 · billback

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

315Gross promoted214− Subsidized baseline101= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$216
Accrued trade cost
$286
Return on spend
0.80×
Giveaway share
60%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →