Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0113

KROGER · CHP-SC-004 · TPR_shallow · 13.8% off · 3 weeks · 2025-05-31 to 2025-06-14 · scan_based

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

482Gross promoted417− Subsidized baseline66= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$156
Accrued trade cost
$289
Return on spend
0.50×
Giveaway share
80%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →