Event Anatomy
← Back to the ScorecardPRE-0122
Where the promoted volume came from
Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.
Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.
- Net incremental margin
- -$1
- Accrued trade cost
- $6
- Return on spend
- -0.20×
- Giveaway share
- 120%†
† Giveaway over 100%: sales during the promo fell below the baseline — a dip the naive baseline sits above. Method 0 reads a dip and a weak promotion the same way.
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →