Lailara Promo Incrementality

Event Anatomy

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PRE-0124

WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-008 · endcap · 5.5% off · 1 week · 2023-08-05 to 2023-08-05 · billback

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 1 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is caused by the promo.

317Gross promoted170− Subsidized baseline147= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — a blind estimator cannot see them; they arrive as their own bars in the next method arc.

Net incremental margin
$327
Accrued trade cost
$61
Return on spend
5.40×
Giveaway share
50%
How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →