Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

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PRE-2501

COSTCO · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep · 18.9% off · 3 weeks · 2025-10-18 to 2025-11-01 · billback

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

6,700Gross promoted2,553− Subsidized baseline4,147= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$8,273
Accrued trade cost
$4,620
Return on spend
1.79×
Giveaway share
38%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →