Lailara Lift Math

Event Anatomy

← Back to the Scorecard

PRE-4820

WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · ad_circular · 21.19% off · 3 weeks · 2023-10-14 to 2023-10-28 · billback

Where the promoted volume came from

Units over the promo weeks, Method 0 baseline. The middle bar is volume that would have sold anyway; only the last bar is what the estimator credits to the promo.

3,817Gross promoted1,978− Subsidized baseline1,839= Net incremental

Gross promoted volume minus the subsidized baseline the estimator would have expected leaves net incremental lift. Dip (pantry-load) and transfer (cannibalization) are not shown — these methods don't yet estimate them; both are estimable from observed data and arrive as their own bars in a later release.

Net incremental margin
$5,875
Accrued trade cost
$3,406
Return on spend
1.73×
Giveaway share
47%

Giveaway share is measured over complying stores only, while the bars show all promoted volume — so dividing the two bars above will not reproduce it exactly.

How wrong is this estimate? The error against known truth lives in the accuracy view — never on this page. →