ROI Scorecard

45 of 129 promotions lost money.

Method 0 is the most forgiving measure available — each promotion judged against the eight weeks before it. Even so, 45 of 129 didn’t pay back. The portfolio clears 1.47× on the dollar, and the return is uneven — most of the net margin comes from a small number of events.

Trade spend: $80,449
Net incremental margin: $118,200
Portfolio ROI: 1.47×

Trade spend here is the scan-promoted event slice of the trade book — accrued cost on promo events only, not all-in trade spend. It excludes slotting, off-invoice allowances and deductions, and it covers a dataset where roughly one percent of volume runs on promotion, so the portfolio total is small by construction. Read the per-event economics, not the portfolio dollars.

Where the 129 estimable promotions landed

Grouped by return on trade spend · Method 0 · pre-period

Lost money

Returned 1–2×

Returned 2–4×

Returned 4×+

2 of 131 events not estimable by Method 0, shown unranked below and excluded from these totals. Method 0 (naive pre-period) and Method 1 (comparable-store) are the two baselines on this site — neither is the verdict — toggle to compare.

How wrong are these numbers? See both methods scored against known truth — the error, by regime, including where it is large. →

Every promotion, ranked by net margin

129 estimable events under Method 0. Rows below break-even — margin under spend — are marked in the ROI column.

#	Promotion	Net margin	Trade spend	ROI	Method 1 ROI	Giveaway
1	PRE-0073 WALMART · CHP-PS-009 · ad_circular	$13,228	$6,870	1.93×	1.85×	50%
2	PRE-0019 COSTCO · CHP-AS-009 · TPR_deep	$9,662	$5,545	1.74×	0.27×	36%
3	PRE-0023 WALMART · CHP-AS-010 · BOGO	$7,270	$3,749	1.94×	2.35×	43%
4	PRE-0043 Hero cannibal WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$6,000	$2,542	2.36×	2.45×	50%
5	PRE-0105 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · digital_coupon	$5,992	$6,558	0.91×	0.46×	65%
6	PRE-0002 Pure subsidy WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,049	$4,900	1.03×	1.74×	63%
7	PRE-0056 Pantry trap WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · BOGO	$5,005	$1,045	4.79×	4.85×	27%
8	PRE-0079 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · BOGO	$3,993	$1,704	2.34×	2.29×	26%
9	PRE-0001 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$3,896	$2,916	1.34×	1.24×	54%
10	PRE-0055 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep	$3,814	$4,063	0.94×	0.89×	50%
11	PRE-0025 KROGER · CHP-DG-001 · BOGO	$3,574	$1,958	1.83×	1.54×	29%
12	PRE-0128 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-009 · BOGO	$2,737	$574	4.77×	4.45×	25%
13	PRE-0078 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_shallow	$2,721	$925	2.94×	1.30×	50%
14	PRE-0027 COSTCO · CHP-DG-002 · ad_circular	$2,582	$1,487	1.74×	1.28×	57%
15	PRE-0102 KROGER · CHP-SB-010 · ad_circular	$2,113	$2,002	1.05×	1.15×	51%
16	PRE-0012 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_shallow	$1,739	$1,056	1.65×	1.26×	59%
17	PRE-0081 COSTCO · CHP-SB-002 · ad_circular	$1,666	$1,197	1.39×	0.98×	56%
18	PRE-0042 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-007 · ad_circular	$1,622	$1,572	1.03×	1.06×	64%
19	PRE-0077 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · digital_coupon	$1,612	$227	7.11×	7.47×	77%
20	PRE-0026 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-001 · endcap	$1,574	$788	2.00×	1.69×	35%
21	PRE-0022 KROGER · CHP-AS-010 · TPR_deep	$1,570	$316	4.96×	4.16×	40%
22	PRE-0003 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$1,529	$895	1.71×	2.92×	58%
23	PRE-0067 COSTCO · CHP-PS-007 · BOGO	$1,517	$304	4.98×	2.25×	30%
24	PRE-0029 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-002 · ad_circular	$1,441	$814	1.77×	1.81×	53%
25	PRE-0090 COSTCO · CHP-SB-006 · BOGO	$1,368	$251	5.44×	1.53×	35%
26	PRE-0106 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$1,158	$847	1.37×	1.16×	45%
27	PRE-0083 WALMART · CHP-SB-003 · endcap	$1,131	$945	1.20×	0.10×	51%
28	PRE-0052 WALMART · CHP-PS-001 · TPR_deep	$1,112	$414	2.68×	2.87×	49%
29	PRE-0108 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-002 · ad_circular	$1,068	$574	1.86×	0.96×	38%
30	PRE-0075 SPROUTS · CHP-PS-010 · TPR_deep	$1,040	$522	1.99×	2.25×	50%
31	PRE-0103 KROGER · CHP-SB-010 · digital_coupon	$1,037	$781	1.33×	1.46×	78%
32	PRE-0126 KROGER · CHP-SC-009 · TPR_shallow	$1,019	$862	1.18×	0.37×	59%
33	PRE-0005 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$793	$1,043	0.76×	1.15×	54%
34	PRE-0114 REGIONAL · CHP-SC-004 · endcap	$761	$225	3.38×	2.79×	40%
35	PRE-0057 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_shallow	$758	$964	0.79×	0.69×	74%
36	PRE-0072 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_deep	$727	$500	1.45×	1.53×	50%
37	PRE-0021 COSTCO · CHP-AS-010 · ad_circular	$644	$646	1.00×	0.88×	61%
38	PRE-0009 WALMART · CHP-AS-004 · TPR_shallow	$620	$297	2.08×	1.91×	61%
39	PRE-0107 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-002 · TPR_shallow	$610	$412	1.48×	0.47×	62%
40	PRE-0088 KROGER · CHP-SB-005 · TPR_shallow	$593	$460	1.29×	1.38×	68%
41	PRE-0016 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-007 · endcap	$583	$232	2.51×	2.23×	37%
42	PRE-0115 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-004 · TPR_deep	$567	$428	1.33×	1.32×	47%
43	PRE-0050 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-010 · endcap	$555	$509	1.09×	1.33×	51%
44	PRE-0096 COSTCO · CHP-SB-008 · TPR_shallow	$499	$420	1.19×	0.20×	61%
45	PRE-0013 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-006 · ad_circular	$491	$151	3.24×	3.19×	35%
46	PRE-0006 KROGER · CHP-AS-003 · digital_coupon	$478	$472	1.01×	0.77×	71%
47	PRE-0062 WALMART · CHP-PS-004 · ad_circular	$451	$220	2.05×	1.50×	65%
48	PRE-0068 COSTCO · CHP-PS-007 · ad_circular	$446	$444	1.00×	0.64×	70%
49	PRE-0058 KROGER · CHP-PS-003 · TPR_shallow	$420	$506	0.83×	0.58×	75%
50	PRE-0125 unplanned WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-008 · TPR_deep	$391	$118	3.32×	3.20×	45%
51	PRE-0051 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-010 · ad_circular	$372	$293	1.27×	1.30×	55%
52	PRE-0130 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-010 · TPR_shallow	$370	$197	1.87×	2.40×	72%
53	PRE-0024 COSTCO · CHP-DG-001 · TPR_shallow	$369	$197	1.87×	1.41×	60%
54	PRE-0031 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-003 · ad_circular	$355	$146	2.44×	1.97×	41%
55	PRE-0028 REGIONAL · CHP-DG-002 · ad_circular	$339	$612	0.55×	0.67×	49%
56	PRE-0010 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-005 · TPR_deep	$333	$173	1.93×	2.07×	50%
57	PRE-0112 WALMART · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow	$329	$488	0.68×	1.19×	84%
58	PRE-0020 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-009 · digital_coupon	$324	$155	2.09×	0.85×	52%
59	PRE-0129 unplanned SPROUTS · CHP-SC-010 · TPR_deep	$314	$254	1.23×	1.38×	48%
60	PRE-0046 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-008 · TPR_deep	$308	$148	2.08×	2.28×	63%
61	PRE-0011 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-005 · TPR_deep	$301	$123	2.45×	2.83×	61%
62	PRE-0070 COSTCO · CHP-PS-008 · endcap	$301	$220	1.37×	1.02×	50%
63	PRE-0124 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-008 · endcap	$298	$117	2.54×	2.79×	50%
64	PRE-0127 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-009 · digital_coupon	$278	$615	0.45×	0.48×	79%
65	PRE-0095 WALMART · CHP-SB-007 · TPR_deep	$220	$74	2.97×	3.46×	56%
66	PRE-0082 SPROUTS · CHP-SB-003 · ad_circular	$212	$213	0.99×	-0.06×	49%
67	PRE-0064 WALMART · CHP-PS-005 · TPR_shallow	$208	$215	0.96×	1.16×	73%
68	PRE-0014 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-007 · endcap	$206	$87	2.38×	3.31×	53%
69	PRE-0053 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-001 · TPR_shallow	$200	$566	0.35×	0.20×	87%
70	PRE-0094 KROGER · CHP-SB-007 · TPR_deep	$194	$127	1.53×	1.28×	54%
71	PRE-0060 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-003 · TPR_shallow	$186	$102	1.83×	2.43×	73%
72	PRE-0044 KROGER · CHP-DG-008 · TPR_shallow	$178	$202	0.88×	0.87×	69%
73	PRE-0034 WALMART · CHP-DG-004 · TPR_shallow	$164	$162	1.01×	1.12×	75%
74	PRE-0035 REGIONAL · CHP-DG-005 · TPR_deep	$163	$152	1.08×	1.28×	63%
75	PRE-0093 KROGER · CHP-SB-007 · endcap	$162	$40	4.09×	4.04×	43%
76	PRE-0080 COSTCO · CHP-SB-002 · endcap	$160	$890	0.18×	1.34×	89%
77	PRE-0066 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-006 · TPR_shallow	$152	$230	0.66×	0.54×	80%
78	PRE-0033 COSTCO · CHP-DG-004 · endcap	$151	$83	1.83×	1.42×	47%
79	PRE-0104 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-010 · TPR_shallow	$151	$154	0.98×	1.35×	65%
80	PRE-0113 KROGER · CHP-SC-004 · TPR_shallow	$150	$363	0.41×	0.43×	86%
81	PRE-0084 COSTCO · CHP-SB-004 · ad_circular	$143	$93	1.53×	1.05×	59%
82	PRE-0030 KROGER · CHP-DG-003 · digital_coupon	$140	$141	1.00×	0.72×	71%
83	PRE-0045 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-008 · TPR_deep	$140	$179	0.78×	1.82×	55%
84	PRE-0097 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-008 · TPR_shallow	$134	$153	0.88×	—	77%
85	PRE-0110 COSTCO · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow	$116	$73	1.59×	0.45×	66%
86	PRE-0111 KROGER · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow	$98	$123	0.80×	1.76×	80%
87	PRE-0092 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-006 · TPR_shallow	$98	$49	1.99×	1.03×	57%
88	PRE-0089 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-005 · endcap	$95	$52	1.82×	1.11×	45%
89	PRE-0101 COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · endcap	$92	$61	1.51×	1.62×	45%
90	PRE-0087 Clean winner KROGER · CHP-SB-005 · digital_coupon	$89	$45	1.99×	3.35×	91%
91	PRE-0036 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-005 · endcap	$83	$78	1.05×	0.52×	30%
92	PRE-0041 REGIONAL · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_shallow	$82	$697	0.12×	0.69×	92%
93	PRE-0074 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-010 · ad_circular	$79	$101	0.78×	0.87×	56%
94	PRE-0008 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-004 · ad_circular	$77	$53	1.46×	1.27×	54%
95	PRE-0040 phantom KROGER · CHP-DG-007 · digital_coupon	$77	$1,878	0.04×	0.09×	—
96	PRE-0086 SPROUTS · CHP-SB-004 · ad_circular	$76	$49	1.53×	1.97×	61%
97	PRE-0098 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-008 · TPR_deep	$73	$53	1.37×	2.43×	65%
98	PRE-0037 KROGER · CHP-DG-006 · TPR_shallow	$69	$36	1.92×	0.73×	70%
99	PRE-0100 COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · endcap	$57	$42	1.35×	1.77×	63%
100	PRE-0071 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-008 · TPR_deep	$57	$16	3.52×	3.22×	39%
101	PRE-0017 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-008 · ad_circular	$57	$42	1.35×	0.88×	40%
102	PRE-0047 KROGER · CHP-DG-009 · TPR_shallow	$45	$37	1.23×	0.63×	71%
103	PRE-0007 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-003 · TPR_shallow	$41	$98	0.42×	0.40×	81%
104	PRE-0076 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-010 · TPR_shallow	$40	$289	0.14×	0.74×	90%
105	PRE-0032 WALMART · CHP-DG-003 · TPR_shallow	$37	$60	0.61×	1.67×	87%
106	PRE-0131 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-010 · endcap	$29	$133	0.22×	1.06×	66%
107	PRE-0121 REGIONAL · CHP-SC-007 · endcap	$28	$7	3.99×	3.56×	39%
108	PRE-0120 WALMART · CHP-SC-006 · ad_circular	$23	$16	1.43×	0.24×	63%
109	PRE-0015 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-007 · digital_coupon	$20	$3	7.39×	13.44×	84%
110	PRE-0018 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-008 · ad_circular	$19	$20	0.95×	1.10×	65%
111	PRE-0118 unplanned KROGER · CHP-SC-006 · digital_coupon	$17	$1	21.56×	9.57×	69%
112	PRE-0099 COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · TPR_shallow	$10	$41	0.25×	0.74×	90%
113	PRE-0038 KROGER · CHP-DG-006 · TPR_shallow	$10	$24	0.42×	0.23×	89%
114	PRE-0119 REGIONAL · CHP-SC-006 · digital_coupon	$9	$8	1.19×	-0.61×	67%
115	PRE-0085 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-004 · TPR_shallow	$7	$49	0.13×	0.94×	87%
116	PRE-0122 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-007 · TPR_shallow	$3	$6	0.53×	-0.16×	96%
117	PRE-0059 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-003 · ad_circular	$2	$0	—	—	—
118	PRE-0061 phantom SPROUTS · CHP-PS-004 · TPR_deep	-$3	$118	-0.02×	-0.10×	—
119	PRE-0049 phantom REGIONAL · CHP-DG-010 · endcap	-$3	$44	-0.07×	-0.41×	—
120	PRE-0065 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-006 · TPR_shallow	-$16	$67	-0.24×^†	0.55×	106%
121	PRE-0123 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-008 · TPR_deep	-$21	$58	-0.36×^†	0.96×	104%
122	PRE-0039 phantom WALMART · CHP-DG-006 · ad_circular	-$24	$22	-1.09×	0.12×	—
123	PRE-0063 phantom COSTCO · CHP-PS-005 · ad_circular	-$25	$153	-0.16×	0.70×	—
124	PRE-0117 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-005 · TPR_shallow	-$29	$36	-0.78×^†	-0.54×	106%
125	PRE-0116 phantom ^‡ KROGER · CHP-SC-005 · ad_circular	-$69	$0	—	—	—
126	PRE-0069 WALMART · CHP-PS-007 · TPR_shallow	-$137	$40	-3.42×^†	1.01×	139%
127	PRE-0091 KROGER · CHP-SB-006 · digital_coupon	-$273	$338	-0.81×^†	0.66×	115%
128	PRE-0004 phantom ^‡ KROGER · CHP-AS-002 · endcap	-$445	$0	—	—	—
129	PRE-0109 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-002 · digital_coupon	-$1,702	$118	-14.39×^†	1.43×	267%

† Giveaway over 100%: sales during the promotion fell below the baseline — a dip — so the baseline volume outweighs what actually sold.
‡ Scan-funded phantom — the promotion never ran, so nothing accrued; the margin shown is estimation noise around zero.

Not estimable by Method 0

2 events with too little pre-period history for a naive baseline. Excluded from the totals above and shown here — the denominator is never hidden. One of these is estimable under Method 1; toggle to see. Method 1 excludes a different set, not a subset — the two methods fail on different events.

PRE-0048 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-009 · TPR_deep · $2 spend
PRE-0054 KROGER · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_shallow · $554 spend