ROI Scorecard

2,170 of 5,735 promotions lost money.

Method 0 is the most forgiving measure available — each promotion judged against the eight weeks before it. Even so, 2,170 of 5,735 didn’t pay back. The portfolio clears 1.38× on the dollar, and the return is uneven — most of the net margin comes from a small number of events.

Trade spend: $2,930,338
Net incremental margin: $4,052,666
Portfolio ROI: 1.38×

Specialty food brands commit 15–20% of revenue to trade promotion, and the industry’s own benchmark says roughly seven in ten events don’t pay back. The reports brands receive almost never say so — because nobody can check them. This page is what checkable looks like: a full promo book, measured honestly, on a realistic $25M brand — with the measurement’s own error published one click away.

The engagement version runs this same measurement on your promotion calendar and your POS data — and tells you which of your events would survive it.

Run this on your book → Read the case study →

Trade spend here is the scan-promoted event slice of the trade book — accrued cost on promo events only. It excludes slotting, off-invoice allowances and deductions. About a third of volume runs on promotion, so the portfolio totals hold up: trade spend is about 2.3% of total revenue, and about 8% of promoted revenue — the event-level promotion allowance, not the all-in trade figure that folds in slotting and deductions this dataset does not carry.

Where the 5,735 estimable promotions landed

Grouped by return on trade spend · Method 0 · pre-period

Lost money

2170

Returned 1–2×

1895

Returned 2–4×

1221

Returned 4×+

449

162 of 5,897 events not estimable by Method 0, shown unranked below and excluded from these totals. Method 0 (naive pre-period) and Method 1 (comparable-store) are the two baselines on this site. Neither is the verdict — toggle to compare.

How wrong are these numbers? See both methods scored against known truth — the error, by regime, including where it is large. →

Every promotion, ranked by net margin

5,735 estimable events under Method 0. Rows below break-even — margin under spend — are marked in the ROI column.

Showing the top 150 by net margin.

#	Promotion	Net margin	Trade spend	ROI	Method 1 ROI	Giveaway
1	PRE-0624 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · endcap	$22,640	$4,180	5.42×	4.56×	34%
2	PRE-0009 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · BOGO	$19,413	$10,052	1.93×	0.96×	30%
3	PRE-3584 KROGER · CHP-SB-001 · endcap	$18,714	$12,262	1.53×	1.37×	39%
4	PRE-3577 KROGER · CHP-SB-001 · endcap	$17,386	$7,459	2.33×	1.78×	42%
5	PRE-0235 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-002 · BOGO	$13,980	$2,240	6.24×	6.16×	25%
6	PRE-3646 WALMART · CHP-SB-001 · BOGO	$13,294	$3,227	4.12×	3.98×	38%
7	PRE-4807 WALMART · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$13,294	$8,612	1.54×	0.89×	40%
8	PRE-0604 COSTCO · CHP-AS-006 · endcap	$13,291	$6,235	2.13×	1.20×	34%
9	PRE-3658 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_deep	$12,740	$2,250	5.66×	2.92×	38%
10	PRE-0016 unplanned COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · endcap	$12,570	$7,983	1.57×	0.95×	41%
11	PRE-0085 WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$12,523	$12,386	1.01×	1.30×	53%
12	PRE-3564 COSTCO · CHP-SB-001 · endcap	$12,448	$5,068	2.46×	1.46×	44%
13	PRE-3570 COSTCO · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_deep	$11,748	$4,697	2.50×	1.06×	42%
14	PRE-0112 unplanned WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-001 · endcap	$11,525	$1,728	6.67×	5.90×	41%
15	PRE-0138 COSTCO · CHP-AS-002 · BOGO	$11,088	$1,104	10.05×	5.41×	22%
16	PRE-0618 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · BOGO	$11,062	$4,848	2.28×	2.11×	32%
17	PRE-0030 KROGER · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$10,727	$6,112	1.75×	1.64×	46%
18	PRE-1972 WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$10,424	$4,947	2.11×	0.95×	45%
19	PRE-0011 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · endcap	$10,066	$2,981	3.38×	1.92×	42%
20	PRE-0597 COSTCO · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_shallow	$9,932	$4,354	2.28×	1.05×	56%
21	PRE-0204 WALMART · CHP-AS-002 · endcap	$9,892	$1,694	5.84×	1.14×	43%
22	PRE-0674 WALMART · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_deep	$9,787	$6,337	1.54×	0.37×	44%
23	PRE-3591 KROGER · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_deep	$9,658	$3,728	2.59×	2.02×	37%
24	PRE-4748 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · endcap	$9,568	$5,773	1.66×	1.20×	36%
25	PRE-2579 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · endcap	$9,453	$5,080	1.86×	1.32×	31%
26	PRE-0097 WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$9,365	$3,603	2.60×	2.04×	40%
27	PRE-5665 COSTCO · CHP-SC-009 · BOGO	$9,151	$1,670	5.48×	0.10×	24%
28	PRE-1898 COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$9,121	$6,726	1.36×	1.04×	43%
29	PRE-2514 KROGER · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep	$9,034	$3,472	2.60×	1.71×	51%
30	PRE-0620 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · endcap	$8,996	$2,164	4.16×	3.67×	39%
31	PRE-1907 COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$8,960	$6,084	1.47×	0.70×	46%
32	PRE-0151 KROGER · CHP-AS-002 · ad_circular	$8,909	$4,414	2.02×	1.58×	43%
33	PRE-1982 WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · BOGO	$8,615	$7,101	1.21×	1.47×	44%
34	PRE-0217 WALMART · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$8,605	$5,295	1.62×	1.52×	42%
35	PRE-2002 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-007 · BOGO	$8,588	$2,322	3.70×	4.31×	39%
36	PRE-0682 WALMART · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_deep	$8,578	$3,795	2.26×	2.12×	46%
37	PRE-4621 KROGER · CHP-SB-010 · BOGO	$8,549	$2,425	3.53×	3.63×	28%
38	PRE-0125 COSTCO · CHP-AS-002 · endcap	$8,455	$3,113	2.72×	2.63×	32%
39	PRE-4742 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · BOGO	$8,325	$4,737	1.76×	1.71×	34%
40	PRE-2501 COSTCO · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep	$8,273	$4,620	1.79×	0.86×	38%
41	PRE-0623 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_deep	$8,255	$3,857	2.14×	1.80×	47%
42	PRE-0209 WALMART · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$8,146	$5,564	1.46×	1.04×	44%
43	PRE-3590 KROGER · CHP-SB-001 · ad_circular	$8,135	$2,303	3.53×	2.44×	45%
44	PRE-4725 COSTCO · CHP-SC-001 · BOGO	$8,110	$2,385	3.40×	1.25×	36%
45	PRE-0014 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · endcap	$7,970	$4,183	1.91×	1.35×	43%
46	PRE-0701 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_shallow	$7,911	$3,331	2.37×	1.07×	50%
47	PRE-4828 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$7,856	$3,643	2.16×	1.48×	44%
48	PRE-1036 WALMART · CHP-AS-009 · BOGO	$7,806	$2,462	3.17×	1.02×	20%
49	PRE-4788 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$7,779	$5,312	1.46×	1.06×	50%
50	PRE-3338 KROGER · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_deep	$7,767	$6,305	1.23×	1.00×	38%
51	PRE-4814 WALMART · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_shallow	$7,733	$7,724	1.00×	—	56%
52	PRE-0036 KROGER · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$7,725	$4,306	1.79×	1.59×	46%
53	PRE-1095 KROGER · CHP-AS-010 · BOGO	$7,707	$4,041	1.91×	1.12×	33%
54	PRE-3409 WALMART · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_deep	$7,685	$2,930	2.62×	1.94×	39%
55	PRE-0070 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-001 · BOGO	$7,467	$3,324	2.25×	2.01×	32%
56	PRE-0018 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$7,456	$3,422	2.18×	0.62×	52%
57	PRE-1987 WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$7,417	$1,929	3.85×	3.64×	57%
58	PRE-0688 WALMART · CHP-AS-006 · digital_coupon	$7,394	$6,199	1.19×	0.10×	59%
59	PRE-4821 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_shallow	$7,198	$4,886	1.47×	0.78×	53%
60	PRE-1985 Hero cannibal WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$7,192	$2,542	2.83×	2.69×	47%
61	PRE-0144 KROGER · CHP-AS-002 · endcap	$7,172	$1,809	3.97×	—	42%
62	PRE-0111 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$7,134	$2,533	2.82×	2.04×	43%
63	PRE-3555 COSTCO · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_deep	$7,127	$4,234	1.68×	0.26×	43%
64	PRE-1978 WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$7,109	$3,538	2.01×	2.23×	57%
65	PRE-1980 WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$6,966	$5,255	1.33×	1.47×	46%
66	PRE-0100 Pure subsidy WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$6,965	$6,133	1.14×	1.67×	60%
67	PRE-1029 WALMART · CHP-AS-009 · ad_circular	$6,877	$2,990	2.30×	1.00×	42%
68	PRE-2487 COSTCO · CHP-PS-002 · ad_circular	$6,862	$4,858	1.41×	0.88×	43%
69	PRE-3317 COSTCO · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_deep	$6,564	$1,562	4.20×	2.95×	35%
70	PRE-3410 WALMART · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_shallow	$6,532	$5,132	1.27×	0.02×	54%
71	PRE-1417 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-002 · BOGO	$6,516	$2,200	2.96×	2.73×	32%
72	PRE-3345 KROGER · CHP-PS-009 · endcap	$6,494	$2,522	2.58×	1.14×	36%
73	PRE-1161 WALMART · CHP-AS-010 · endcap	$6,448	$2,675	2.41×	0.87×	43%
74	PRE-0089 WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$6,342	$1,532	4.14×	4.07×	44%
75	PRE-0210 WALMART · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_shallow	$6,323	$5,110	1.24×	0.86×	60%
76	PRE-4720 COSTCO · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$6,320	$4,255	1.49×	1.06×	50%
77	PRE-4811 WALMART · CHP-SC-001 · endcap	$6,320	$1,721	3.67×	3.76×	42%
78	PRE-5163 WALMART · CHP-SC-004 · BOGO	$6,287	$1,018	6.17×	0.92×	23%
79	PRE-0949 COSTCO · CHP-AS-009 · TPR_deep	$6,226	$2,706	2.30×	—	39%
80	PRE-2565 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep	$6,201	$5,781	1.07×	0.96×	55%
81	PRE-1955 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-007 · BOGO	$6,197	$1,894	3.27×	3.16×	29%
82	PRE-0104 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$6,192	$3,009	2.06×	—	48%
83	PRE-0156 unplanned KROGER · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$6,175	$4,644	1.33×	1.08×	43%
84	PRE-1391 WALMART · CHP-DG-002 · BOGO	$6,175	$3,625	1.70×	1.54×	32%
85	PRE-0031 KROGER · CHP-AS-001 · endcap	$6,120	$6,374	0.96×	1.13×	56%
86	PRE-3576 KROGER · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_shallow	$6,107	$2,142	2.85×	2.14×	56%
87	PRE-3557 COSTCO · CHP-SB-001 · ad_circular	$6,101	$4,415	1.38×	0.72×	55%
88	PRE-0191 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-002 · BOGO	$6,069	$1,605	3.78×	3.98×	31%
89	PRE-1964 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-007 · BOGO	$6,041	$3,021	2.00×	1.88×	35%
90	PRE-2584 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-002 · endcap	$6,038	$1,221	4.95×	4.68×	39%
91	PRE-0826 unplanned WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-007 · BOGO	$5,984	$1,488	4.02×	4.09×	32%
92	PRE-0035 KROGER · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$5,964	$3,783	1.58×	1.50×	50%
93	PRE-0705 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_deep	$5,881	$3,735	1.57×	1.46×	47%
94	PRE-4820 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · ad_circular	$5,875	$3,406	1.73×	0.11×	47%
95	PRE-0622 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · BOGO	$5,872	$3,193	1.84×	1.78×	41%
96	PRE-0683 WALMART · CHP-AS-006 · ad_circular	$5,814	$2,936	1.98×	1.67×	50%
97	PRE-0676 WALMART · CHP-AS-006 · digital_coupon	$5,767	$695	8.30×	4.73×	64%
98	PRE-0003 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,766	$5,265	1.09×	—	44%
99	PRE-3396 WALMART · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_shallow	$5,763	$7,148	0.81×	0.56×	63%
100	PRE-0119 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,759	$2,513	2.29×	2.29×	45%
101	PRE-0962 COSTCO · CHP-AS-009 · endcap	$5,752	$1,977	2.91×	-0.03×	34%
102	PRE-4630 KROGER · CHP-SB-010 · endcap	$5,744	$1,874	3.07×	2.45×	41%
103	PRE-2576 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · endcap	$5,737	$2,164	2.65×	1.79×	44%
104	PRE-1977 WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · ad_circular	$5,707	$5,518	1.03×	1.10×	52%
105	PRE-0130 COSTCO · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$5,703	$1,991	2.86×	1.37×	36%
106	PRE-3645 WALMART · CHP-SB-001 · endcap	$5,692	$1,772	3.21×	2.53×	36%
107	PRE-1268 WALMART · CHP-DG-001 · BOGO	$5,676	$1,315	4.32×	3.74×	28%
108	PRE-2585 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_shallow	$5,578	$2,982	1.87×	0.96×	54%
109	PRE-1901 COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · ad_circular	$5,563	$2,602	2.14×	1.24×	55%
110	PRE-4740 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · endcap	$5,540	$2,711	2.04×	1.77×	44%
111	PRE-3802 COSTCO · CHP-SB-003 · BOGO	$5,535	$1,052	5.26×	—	26%
112	PRE-1994 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$5,496	$3,474	1.58×	0.92×	51%
113	PRE-3325 COSTCO · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_deep	$5,422	$1,835	2.96×	1.90×	47%
114	PRE-1925 KROGER · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$5,417	$1,642	3.30×	3.45×	56%
115	PRE-0023 KROGER · CHP-AS-001 · BOGO	$5,416	$1,612	3.36×	3.65×	34%
116	PRE-2572 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · ad_circular	$5,413	$3,426	1.58×	0.93×	52%
117	PRE-3563 COSTCO · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_shallow	$5,409	$4,184	1.29×	0.65×	57%
118	PRE-0077 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,403	$2,047	2.64×	2.28×	37%
119	PRE-3665 unplanned WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_deep	$5,399	$3,251	1.66×	1.26×	50%
120	PRE-3803 COSTCO · CHP-SB-003 · endcap	$5,391	$2,291	2.35×	—	36%
121	PRE-2564 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · digital_coupon	$5,385	$5,678	0.95×	0.40×	59%
122	PRE-0087 WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,379	$5,136	1.05×	1.60×	61%
123	PRE-0628 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_deep	$5,346	$1,645	3.25×	3.41×	46%
124	PRE-1057 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-009 · TPR_deep	$5,326	$1,033	5.16×	—	34%
125	PRE-0091 WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$5,312	$1,858	2.86×	2.75×	47%
126	PRE-0636 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-006 · BOGO	$5,282	$2,044	2.58×	2.20×	31%
127	PRE-3672 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_shallow	$5,262	$2,874	1.83×	0.90×	52%
128	PRE-4804 WALMART · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$5,238	$2,330	2.25×	2.37×	47%
129	PRE-4744 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · ad_circular	$5,227	$4,349	1.20×	1.07×	45%
130	PRE-4827 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · ad_circular	$5,121	$3,084	1.66×	1.27×	47%
131	PRE-0616 KROGER · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_deep	$5,111	$3,350	1.53×	1.17×	46%
132	PRE-1996 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$5,108	$2,139	2.39×	2.91×	41%
133	PRE-0015 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,094	$2,773	1.84×	1.17×	46%
134	PRE-0236 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-002 · ad_circular	$5,047	$2,449	2.06×	2.45×	50%
135	PRE-4719 COSTCO · CHP-SC-001 · endcap	$5,037	$2,714	1.86×	0.67×	52%
136	PRE-1307 COSTCO · CHP-DG-002 · endcap	$5,027	$2,782	1.81×	0.40×	46%
137	PRE-1892 COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$4,980	$1,837	2.71×	1.53×	45%
138	PRE-0002 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$4,974	$3,877	1.28×	0.98×	44%
139	PRE-3567 COSTCO · CHP-SB-001 · endcap	$4,957	$1,043	4.75×	2.53×	43%
140	PRE-3417 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-009 · endcap	$4,953	$2,301	2.15×	1.75×	50%
141	PRE-4808 WALMART · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$4,874	$3,839	1.27×	1.28×	50%
142	PRE-2575 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · endcap	$4,866	$3,220	1.51×	1.38×	37%
143	PRE-4707 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-010 · BOGO	$4,855	$827	5.87×	5.83×	27%
144	PRE-2562 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep	$4,840	$3,114	1.55×	1.77×	49%
145	PRE-1899 COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$4,827	$3,572	1.35×	0.97×	48%
146	PRE-0005 COSTCO · CHP-AS-001 · endcap	$4,763	$2,912	1.64×	0.15×	61%
147	PRE-4741 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$4,733	$2,965	1.60×	0.53×	50%
148	PRE-1904 COSTCO · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_deep	$4,732	$2,423	1.95×	1.14×	52%
149	PRE-2571 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · ad_circular	$4,730	$3,447	1.37×	1.23×	45%
150	PRE-0203 unplanned WALMART · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$4,696	$4,557	1.03×	—	42%