Lailara Promo Incrementality

ROI Scorecard · Method 0

64 of 129 promotions lost money.

Method 0 — the naive pre-period baseline, the most optimistic read there is — still puts 50% of estimable events below break-even. The portfolio clears 1.13× on the dollar only because a thin tail of winners carries a middle that mostly didn't pay back.

Trade spend
$104,425

accrued, 129 estimable events

Net incremental margin
$118,200

manufacturer margin on incremental units

Portfolio ROI
1.13×

margin returned per dollar of spend

Where the 129 estimable promotions landed

Grouped by return on trade spend · Method 0 estimate

Lost money
64
Returned 1–2×
39
Returned 2–4×
17
Returned 4×+
9

2 of 131 events not estimable by Method 0 (insufficient pre-period history), shown unranked below and excluded from these totals. Method 0 is the naive pre-period-average baseline — the first of several, shown before comparable-store methods. Synthetic data.