ROI Scorecard · Method 0

64 of 129 promotions lost money.

Method 0 — the naive pre-period baseline, the most optimistic read there is — still puts 50% of estimable events below break-even. The portfolio clears 1.13× on the dollar only because a thin tail of winners carries a middle that mostly didn't pay back.

Trade spend: $104,425
Net incremental margin: $118,200
Portfolio ROI: 1.13×

Where the 129 estimable promotions landed

Grouped by return on trade spend · Method 0 estimate

Lost money

Returned 1–2×

Returned 2–4×

Returned 4×+

2 of 131 events not estimable by Method 0 (insufficient pre-period history), shown unranked below and excluded from these totals. Method 0 is the naive pre-period-average baseline — the first of several, shown before comparable-store methods. Synthetic data.

Every promotion, ranked by net margin

129 estimable events. Rows below break-even — margin under spend — are marked in the ROI column. Method 0 estimate.

#	Promotion	Net margin	Trade spend	ROI	Giveaway
1	PRE-0073 WALMART · CHP-PS-009 · ad_circular	$13,228	$12,333	1.07×	50%
2	PRE-0019 COSTCO · CHP-AS-009 · TPR_deep	$9,662	$4,821	2.00×	36%
3	PRE-0023 WALMART · CHP-AS-010 · BOGO	$7,270	$3,771	1.93×	43%
4	PRE-0043 Hero cannibal WALMART · CHP-DG-007 · endcap	$6,000	$3,274	1.83×	50%
5	PRE-0105 KROGER · CHP-SC-001 · digital_coupon	$5,992	$5,965	1.00×	65%
6	PRE-0002 Pure subsidy WALMART · CHP-AS-001 · TPR_deep	$5,049	$9,180	0.55×	63%
7	PRE-0056 Pantry trap WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · BOGO	$5,005	$2,201	2.27×	27%
8	PRE-0079 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · BOGO	$3,993	$2,239	1.78×	26%
9	PRE-0001 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$3,896	$869	4.48×	54%
10	PRE-0055 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_deep	$3,814	$4,454	0.86×	50%
11	PRE-0025 KROGER · CHP-DG-001 · BOGO	$3,574	$889	4.02×	29%
12	PRE-0128 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-009 · BOGO	$2,737	$843	3.25×	25%
13	PRE-0078 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · TPR_shallow	$2,721	$2,298	1.18×	50%
14	PRE-0027 COSTCO · CHP-DG-002 · ad_circular	$2,582	$3,670	0.70×	57%
15	PRE-0102 KROGER · CHP-SB-010 · ad_circular	$2,113	$2,456	0.86×	51%
16	PRE-0012 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-006 · TPR_shallow	$1,739	$1,908	0.91×	59%
17	PRE-0081 COSTCO · CHP-SB-002 · ad_circular	$1,666	$1,900	0.88×	56%
18	PRE-0042 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-007 · ad_circular	$1,622	$918	1.77×	64%
19	PRE-0077 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SB-001 · digital_coupon	$1,612	$158	10.22×	77%
20	PRE-0026 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-001 · endcap	$1,574	$1,226	1.28×	35%
21	PRE-0022 KROGER · CHP-AS-010 · TPR_deep	$1,570	$1,320	1.19×	40%
22	PRE-0003 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-001 · ad_circular	$1,529	$2,017	0.76×	58%
23	PRE-0067 COSTCO · CHP-PS-007 · BOGO	$1,517	$262	5.80×	30%
24	PRE-0029 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-002 · ad_circular	$1,441	$1,132	1.27×	53%
25	PRE-0090 COSTCO · CHP-SB-006 · BOGO	$1,368	$534	2.56×	35%
26	PRE-0106 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-001 · TPR_deep	$1,158	$868	1.33×	45%
27	PRE-0083 WALMART · CHP-SB-003 · endcap	$1,131	$574	1.97×	51%
28	PRE-0052 WALMART · CHP-PS-001 · TPR_deep	$1,112	$701	1.59×	49%
29	PRE-0108 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-002 · ad_circular	$1,068	$732	1.46×	38%
30	PRE-0075 SPROUTS · CHP-PS-010 · TPR_deep	$1,040	$794	1.31×	50%
31	PRE-0103 KROGER · CHP-SB-010 · digital_coupon	$1,037	$654	1.58×	78%
32	PRE-0126 KROGER · CHP-SC-009 · TPR_shallow	$1,019	$1,551	0.66×	59%
33	PRE-0005 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-002 · TPR_deep	$793	$667	1.19×	54%
34	PRE-0114 REGIONAL · CHP-SC-004 · endcap	$761	$271	2.81×	40%
35	PRE-0057 WALMART · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_shallow	$758	$1,098	0.69×	74%
36	PRE-0072 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-009 · TPR_deep	$727	$430	1.69×	50%
37	PRE-0021 COSTCO · CHP-AS-010 · ad_circular	$644	$275	2.34×	61%
38	PRE-0009 WALMART · CHP-AS-004 · TPR_shallow	$620	$1,042	0.59×	61%
39	PRE-0107 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-002 · TPR_shallow	$610	$189	3.23×	62%
40	PRE-0088 KROGER · CHP-SB-005 · TPR_shallow	$593	$702	0.84×	68%
41	PRE-0016 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-007 · endcap	$583	$208	2.80×	37%
42	PRE-0115 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-004 · TPR_deep	$567	$285	1.99×	47%
43	PRE-0050 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-010 · endcap	$555	$179	3.10×	51%
44	PRE-0096 COSTCO · CHP-SB-008 · TPR_shallow	$499	$747	0.67×	61%
45	PRE-0013 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-006 · ad_circular	$491	$508	0.97×	35%
46	PRE-0006 KROGER · CHP-AS-003 · digital_coupon	$478	$343	1.39×	71%
47	PRE-0062 WALMART · CHP-PS-004 · ad_circular	$451	$867	0.52×	65%
48	PRE-0068 COSTCO · CHP-PS-007 · ad_circular	$446	$242	1.84×	70%
49	PRE-0058 KROGER · CHP-PS-003 · TPR_shallow	$420	$966	0.43×	75%
50	PRE-0125 unplanned WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-008 · TPR_deep	$391	$244	1.60×	45%
51	PRE-0051 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-010 · ad_circular	$372	$274	1.36×	55%
52	PRE-0130 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-010 · TPR_shallow	$370	$323	1.15×	72%
53	PRE-0024 COSTCO · CHP-DG-001 · TPR_shallow	$369	$584	0.63×	60%
54	PRE-0031 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-003 · ad_circular	$355	$129	2.75×	41%
55	PRE-0028 REGIONAL · CHP-DG-002 · ad_circular	$339	$890	0.38×	49%
56	PRE-0010 SPROUTS · CHP-AS-005 · TPR_deep	$333	$106	3.13×	50%
57	PRE-0112 WALMART · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow	$329	$269	1.22×	84%
58	PRE-0020 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-009 · digital_coupon	$324	$426	0.76×	52%
59	PRE-0129 unplanned SPROUTS · CHP-SC-010 · TPR_deep	$314	$356	0.88×	48%
60	PRE-0046 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-008 · TPR_deep	$308	$143	2.16×	63%
61	PRE-0011 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-005 · TPR_deep	$301	$273	1.10×	61%
62	PRE-0070 COSTCO · CHP-PS-008 · endcap	$301	$81	3.70×	50%
63	PRE-0124 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-008 · endcap	$298	$61	4.91×	50%
64	PRE-0127 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-009 · digital_coupon	$278	$414	0.67×	79%
65	PRE-0095 WALMART · CHP-SB-007 · TPR_deep	$220	$142	1.55×	56%
66	PRE-0082 SPROUTS · CHP-SB-003 · ad_circular	$212	$274	0.77×	49%
67	PRE-0064 WALMART · CHP-PS-005 · TPR_shallow	$208	$365	0.57×	73%
68	PRE-0014 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-007 · endcap	$206	$187	1.11×	53%
69	PRE-0053 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-001 · TPR_shallow	$200	$247	0.81×	87%
70	PRE-0094 KROGER · CHP-SB-007 · TPR_deep	$194	$100	1.93×	54%
71	PRE-0060 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-003 · TPR_shallow	$186	$195	0.95×	73%
72	PRE-0044 KROGER · CHP-DG-008 · TPR_shallow	$178	$228	0.78×	69%
73	PRE-0034 WALMART · CHP-DG-004 · TPR_shallow	$164	$174	0.94×	75%
74	PRE-0035 REGIONAL · CHP-DG-005 · TPR_deep	$163	$324	0.50×	63%
75	PRE-0093 KROGER · CHP-SB-007 · endcap	$162	$96	1.69×	43%
76	PRE-0080 COSTCO · CHP-SB-002 · endcap	$160	$1,125	0.14×	89%
77	PRE-0066 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-006 · TPR_shallow	$152	$101	1.50×	80%
78	PRE-0033 COSTCO · CHP-DG-004 · endcap	$151	$105	1.44×	47%
79	PRE-0104 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-010 · TPR_shallow	$151	$185	0.82×	65%
80	PRE-0113 KROGER · CHP-SC-004 · TPR_shallow	$150	$289	0.52×	86%
81	PRE-0084 COSTCO · CHP-SB-004 · ad_circular	$143	$116	1.23×	59%
82	PRE-0030 KROGER · CHP-DG-003 · digital_coupon	$140	$210	0.67×	71%
83	PRE-0045 SPROUTS · CHP-DG-008 · TPR_deep	$140	$203	0.69×	55%
84	PRE-0097 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-008 · TPR_shallow	$134	$330	0.41×	77%
85	PRE-0110 COSTCO · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow	$116	$208	0.56×	66%
86	PRE-0111 KROGER · CHP-SC-003 · TPR_shallow	$98	$286	0.34×	80%
87	PRE-0092 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-006 · TPR_shallow	$98	$47	2.06×	57%
88	PRE-0089 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-005 · endcap	$95	$66	1.45×	45%
89	PRE-0101 COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · endcap	$92	$61	1.50×	45%
90	PRE-0087 Clean winner KROGER · CHP-SB-005 · digital_coupon	$89	$21	4.27×	91%
91	PRE-0036 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-005 · endcap	$83	$55	1.50×	30%
92	PRE-0041 REGIONAL · CHP-DG-007 · TPR_shallow	$82	$183	0.45×	92%
93	PRE-0074 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-010 · ad_circular	$79	$116	0.68×	56%
94	PRE-0008 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-004 · ad_circular	$77	$92	0.84×	54%
95	PRE-0040 phantom KROGER · CHP-DG-007 · digital_coupon	$77	$4,766	0.02×	—
96	PRE-0086 SPROUTS · CHP-SB-004 · ad_circular	$76	$53	1.44×	61%
97	PRE-0098 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-008 · TPR_deep	$73	$168	0.43×	65%
98	PRE-0037 KROGER · CHP-DG-006 · TPR_shallow	$69	$165	0.42×	70%
99	PRE-0100 COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · endcap	$57	$19	3.05×	63%
100	PRE-0071 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-008 · TPR_deep	$57	$28	2.03×	39%
101	PRE-0017 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-008 · ad_circular	$57	$58	0.97×	40%
102	PRE-0047 KROGER · CHP-DG-009 · TPR_shallow	$45	$51	0.88×	71%
103	PRE-0007 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-003 · TPR_shallow	$41	$88	0.47×	81%
104	PRE-0076 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-010 · TPR_shallow	$40	$475	0.08×	90%
105	PRE-0032 WALMART · CHP-DG-003 · TPR_shallow	$37	$222	0.17×	87%
106	PRE-0131 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-010 · endcap	$29	$122	0.24×	66%
107	PRE-0121 REGIONAL · CHP-SC-007 · endcap	$28	$15	1.91×	39%
108	PRE-0120 WALMART · CHP-SC-006 · ad_circular	$23	$8	2.95×	63%
109	PRE-0015 REGIONAL · CHP-AS-007 · digital_coupon	$20	$2	11.42×	84%
110	PRE-0018 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-AS-008 · ad_circular	$19	$35	0.54×	65%
111	PRE-0118 unplanned KROGER · CHP-SC-006 · digital_coupon	$17	$1	24.78×	69%
112	PRE-0099 COSTCO · CHP-SB-009 · TPR_shallow	$10	$15	0.66×	90%
113	PRE-0038 KROGER · CHP-DG-006 · TPR_shallow	$10	$12	0.81×	89%
114	PRE-0119 REGIONAL · CHP-SC-006 · digital_coupon	$9	$9	1.03×	67%
115	PRE-0085 REGIONAL · CHP-SB-004 · TPR_shallow	$7	$75	0.09×	87%
116	PRE-0122 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-007 · TPR_shallow	$3	$6	0.57×	96%
117	PRE-0059 REGIONAL · CHP-PS-003 · ad_circular	$2	$0	—	—
118	PRE-0061 phantom SPROUTS · CHP-PS-004 · TPR_deep	-$3	$276	-0.01×	—
119	PRE-0049 phantom REGIONAL · CHP-DG-010 · endcap	-$3	$75	-0.04×	—
120	PRE-0065 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-PS-006 · TPR_shallow	-$16	$75	-0.21×	106%
121	PRE-0123 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-008 · TPR_deep	-$21	$34	-0.61×	104%
122	PRE-0039 phantom WALMART · CHP-DG-006 · ad_circular	-$24	$24	-1.03×	—
123	PRE-0063 phantom COSTCO · CHP-PS-005 · ad_circular	-$25	$137	-0.18×	—
124	PRE-0117 SPROUTS · CHP-SC-005 · TPR_shallow	-$29	$66	-0.43×	106%
125	PRE-0116 phantom KROGER · CHP-SC-005 · ad_circular	-$69	$0	—	—
126	PRE-0069 WALMART · CHP-PS-007 · TPR_shallow	-$137	$109	-1.26×	139%
127	PRE-0091 KROGER · CHP-SB-006 · digital_coupon	-$273	$514	-0.53×	115%
128	PRE-0004 phantom KROGER · CHP-AS-002 · endcap	-$445	$0	—	—
129	PRE-0109 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-SC-002 · digital_coupon	-$1,702	$490	-3.47×	267%

Not estimable by Method 0

2 events with too little pre-period history for a naive baseline. Excluded from the totals above and shown here — the denominator is never hidden. A comparable-store method rescues some of these.

PRE-0048 WHOLEFOODS · CHP-DG-009 · TPR_deep · $6 spend
PRE-0054 KROGER · CHP-PS-002 · TPR_shallow · $639 spend